The National Auto Auction Association has tapped a high-profile consultant to examine how changes in technology and consumer preferences will impact wholesale auctions over the next decade.
Glenn Mercer, a former partner at McKinsey & Co. who has studied the future of dealerships for the National Automobile Dealers Association, will produce a 10-year auction industry forecast for NAAA, the association said today.
In a news release, NAAA said its members have raised concerns about the ways shifts in mobility and technology are converging to upend traditional business models. Mercer's forecast, to be released at the NAAA's annual convention in November, is to address those concerns.
"Wholesale auto auctions began in the USA in the 1930s and have thrived ever since," NAAA CEO Frank Hackett said in a statement. "With insights from this research, we hope to assist our members in their long-term planning processes so that our industry is just as vibrant and healthy in the 2030s."
NAAA said Mercer would conduct his forecast through interviews with people in the industry, as well as research into technology and changes in supply and demand.
Mercer's work with NADA addressed a similar question about how autonomous technology and mobility services such as Uber and Lyft, as well as the rise of autonomous vehicles, could upend the traditional dealership model. He presented his research to dealers at a conference last year before the Los Angeles Auto Show, concluding that dealerships would remain central to vehicle sales in 2025.
"We see change coming to the dealership," Mercer said at the time. "But not a disruptive overthrow of the business model."